Digital Gold Bug

Thursday January 30th, 2025 - Issue # 95

(Any views expressed below are the personal views of the author and should not form the basis for making investment decisions, nor be construed as a recommendation or advice to engage in investment transactions.)

Ray Dalio just gave one of the most important interviews I’ve seen in a while.

The crypto game can be fun, but you have to realize the game you’re playing. It’s musical chairs, and the music can end abruptly. You never want to be the last one standing—the one without Bitcoin.

Dalio lays it out for David when he’s asked about where to escape currency devaluation and how to generate real returns: Commodities decline long term due to productivity gains. Wealth preservation is about understanding cycles. He talks about fragmentation, capital flight, the ability to tax, the shift away from fiat dominance—and how gold fits into all of this.

“I’m a gold guy,” he says. I clipped the interaction when he’s asked if he owns Bitcoin. Watch him fumble around trying not to show that he’s accumulating BTC at levels us mortals cannot understand. Click the pic.

Take it with a grain of salt. One of the most successful people I know put me on to a book that paints Ray as an egomaniac. But he’s been through the fire. Maybe, just maybe, he’s doing this to help everyone and not just pumping his bags. Maybe he’s just a gold bug with nothing left to prove, spending millions putting out free books to guide the next generation.

Or maybe he’s quietly realizing what all of us digital gold bugs already know.

Thing is, he genuinely believes gold is superior. You can see him wrestle with it in real time—especially when he brings up international portability and taxation. He’s at a crossroads. And like many of our clients, who have spent decades investing in precious metals—most notably gold and silver—shifting that mindset from analog to digital takes time.

But shifts are happening. When Ray talks about fragmentation, he’s referring to the breakdown of the global economic order as we know it—the gradual fracturing of financial systems, trade relationships, and reserve currency dominance that has held for decades. The breakdown of global financial cohesion forces institutions, sovereigns, and individuals to look for neutral, non-sovereign stores of value. This is why we’re seeing increasing institutional and governmental interest in Bitcoin.

Here’s a nice visual—all the U.S. states with Bitcoin Strategic Reserve bills under consideration.

The Czech National Bank just signaled interest as well.

We’re witnessing a slow but inevitable transition away from a single monetary hegemony. A shift from assets that governments have historically controlled to assets that no one controls. A reality where Bitcoin is the only thing that makes sense as a neutral reserve asset.

And if Dalio, a man who has spent a lifetime studying global cycles, is struggling with the gold vs. Bitcoin debate, you can bet that the rest of tradfi is about to be blindsided.

The irony here is that the game theory of Bitcoin adoption is playing out exactly as expected. No one wants to be first. No one wants to openly admit it yet. But no one can afford to be last. And we’re getting dangerously close to that tipping point.

Gold guys don’t just wake up one day and abandon their thesis. It happens in stages. First, they respect it. Then, they study it. Then, they slowly allocate—always in secret, always in amounts the market barely notices.

And then, one day, they wake up and realize Bitcoin has flipped their worldview upside down.

Dalio isn’t leading the charge, but he’s inching toward the door. And if you think he’s the only one, you haven’t been paying attention.

Watch the interview. It’s worth your time.