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Friday January 3rd, 2025 - Issue # 92
(Any views expressed below are the personal views of the author and should not form the basis for making investment decisions, nor be construed as a recommendation or advice to engage in investment transactions.)
Welcome to 2025!
First and foremost, Happy New Year—and thank you for your incredible support over the past year. 2024 was nothing short of historic for this wild industry we’re all so deeply entrenched in. It was also a monumental year for Satstreet.
When we launched Satstreet in 2020, our mission was clear: to become Canada’s leading independent private digital asset brokerage. In 2024, we crossed a huge milestone, facilitating over $1.2 billion CAD in trading volume, pushing us past the $3 billion mark since inception.
This wouldn’t have been possible without you—thank you, thank you, thank you.
As we close the books on 2024, one thing is clear: Bitcoin has cemented itself as the dominant asset of the decade. Take a look at the chart below—Bitcoin has not only been the best-performing asset class eleven times in the last 14 years but has done so while maintaining its cyclical nature of three years up, one year down.
2025 marks the third year of this bull cycle, and if history has taught us anything, we could be on the verge of something extraordinary. “The year after the halving” is a phrase that gets thrown around a lot—and for good reason. It’s 2025, and previous post-halving years like 2013, 2017, and 2021 have all delivered fireworks.
Would I love a repeat of 2013’s insane performance? Absolutely. I’d gladly take 2017’s 1,300% run too. And honestly, even 2021’s disappointing 66% return feels pretty solid compared to most other assets. Blend them all together, give me the weighted average, and I’d be more than happy (obviously).
Fade the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve at your own risk…
It is understandable that folks are skeptical about Trump announcing a BSR when he takes office later this month. There are however, different flavours of BSR that come with their own level of bullishness — let’s take a quick look.
1. Implement Lummis’s Bitcoin Bill (or a similar framework)
If this happens, pack your bags because we’re going to Neptune. Senator Cynthia Lummis has long been an advocate for integrating Bitcoin into the U.S. financial system. If she gets her bill passed as is, the US Treasury would buy 1 million BTC over the next 5 years and hold for 20 years minimum. This is the most bullish but least likely outcome in my opinion.
2. Retain Seized Bitcoin
The U.S. government has a significant stash of seized Bitcoin, often auctioned off to the highest bidder. Trump could order a halt to these sales, effectively keeping Bitcoin in federal custody as part of an emerging reserve. This is a low-cost, low-risk move that could have an outsized impact on market sentiment and Bitcoin’s perception as a reserve asset. Very bullish.
3. Encourage State-Level Bitcoin Reserves
He could champion legislation allowing or encouraging states to hold Bitcoin in their treasuries. This would enable local governments to hedge against inflation and dollar devaluation, all while creating a decentralized approach to Bitcoin reserves. Bullish.
4. Leverage Sovereign Wealth Funds or Federal Agencies
Trump could direct federal agencies or sovereign wealth funds (e.g., the Exchange Stabilization Fund) to allocate a portion of their reserves into Bitcoin. This approach mirrors how traditional sovereign wealth funds have allocated to alternative assets. Boolish.
6. Incentivize Private and Institutional Bitcoin Holdings
Instead of directly purchasing Bitcoin for reserves, Trump could implement tax incentives or favorable regulations to encourage private institutions to hold Bitcoin. This would indirectly support Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset without direct government acquisition. Still bullish.
These are just a few proposals and ideas. In my opinion, anything Trump does more than he’s already done to bolster the perception of Bitcoin as a qualified reserve asset is insanely bullish. I’ll tell you about the issue I see here which gives me pause — if you knew you were going to buy a sh**load of BTC, why would you tell the world and risk the price getting away from you. If I were Trump, I’d buy a bunch then announce — free money.
Here’s Michael Saylor explaining why the BSR is imperative and how he would do it (click tweet).
Whether Trump announces a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve or not, it’s simply a fact that crypto is walking into 2025 with a level of political support that would have been absolutely unimaginable even just two years ago.
A counter to all the bullishness coming into 2025 is the Elon/Vivek D.O.G.E. initiative. To some extent, the market is pricing in austerity. For the first time in a long time, it feels like the government might finally consider the hardest pill to swallow.
Good—let me keep stacking under $100gs.
From a macroeconomic perspective, the U.S. is entering 2025 under crushing financial pressure. Historically, federal debt has maxed out at around 18% of GDP before tipping the economy into recession—a level breached repeatedly since 1933. With debt now at an eye-watering 125% of GDP, any downturn could push deficits from the current 7% of GDP to as high as 20%. That, in turn, would send Treasury yields soaring during a recession—an inversion of historical norms. A stronger dollar would compound the problem, squeezing global borrowers holding dollar-denominated debt, triggering widespread asset sell-offs, and leaving policymakers with two grim options: systemic collapse or unprecedented 2020-style liquidity injections by the Fed.
The truth is, austerity isn’t an option. Cutting spending—apart from rising interest obligations—historically strengthens the dollar, leading to recessions that deepen deficits. Growth is the only real escape, and achieving it will require devaluing the dollar (lowering interest rates) to stimulate demand. Inflationary as this may be, it’s the lesser evil in a world where the alternative is economic stagnation.
Luke Gromen says this all way better than I ever could in the podcast below — highly recommend you listening to it!
This backdrop couldn’t be more aligned with Bitcoin’s moment in 2025. As policymakers are forced into growth at all costs, Bitcoin stands out as the antithesis: finite, resilient, and increasingly seen as a neutral reserve asset. Institutional adoption continues to surge—look no further than BlackRock, which now advocates for a 1–2% Bitcoin allocation in diversified portfolios — eliminating career risk for financial advisors and portfolio managers in one fell swoop. Meanwhile, as discussed above the whispers of sovereign Bitcoin reserves are growing louder, signaling a potential tectonic shift in how governments view their own monetary policy.
In a world where central banks are likely to prioritize liquidity over restraint, Bitcoin offers something unique: a hedge against fiscal and monetary chaos. It’s hard not to see the pieces falling into place for another massive leap forward. If 2024 was about institutional adoption and infrastructure building, 2025 could be the year Bitcoin asserts itself as a cornerstone of the global financial system. Buckle up—it’s going to be a ride.
