From Paychecks to Private Keys
Friday August 8th, 2025 - Issue # 112
(Any views expressed below are the personal views of the author and should not form the basis for making investment decisions, nor be construed as a recommendation or advice to engage in investment transactions.)
I didn’t write last week. It was the long weekend, and I spent it unplugged at my partner’s cottage - no charts, no headlines, just some good food, golf, and bad signal (is what I told people). It felt great.
But now we’re back.
Yesterday’s events shouldn’t be taken lightly. President Trump signed an executive order allowing cryptocurrencies and other alternative assets to be held inside 401(k) retirement plans. At first, I wasn’t immediately stoked on it — but as my X feed started blowing up, I realized this wasn’t a headline I could just skim past. 401(k)s are the backbone of the American retirement system, with nearly $9 trillion in assets. For decades, they’ve been funneled almost exclusively into stocks and bonds via ETFs and mutual funds, creating not only a structural tailwind for the BlackRocks and Vanguards of the world, but for traditional markets at large: automatic, biweekly paycheck deductions buying S&P 500 index funds regardless of price. That steady flow is one of the quiet reasons the stock market has been so resilient for so long.
Now imagine that same mechanism applied to Bitcoin. Even a 5% allocation across all 401(k) plans would be roughly $450 billion — nearly a quarter of Bitcoin’s current market cap. It wouldn’t come in all at once. It would be a constant, mechanical bid — dripping in every two weeks from millions of paychecks, automatically, without emotion, without hesitation, without waiting for a “good entry.” Price wouldn’t matter. This is the kind of structural flow that can permanently change how an asset trades.
This is the pool of capital we’re talking about.
In other news — and also yesterday — President Trump nominated Stephen Miran to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. The announcement drew significant attention, with some speculating about the role he would fill. Miran was nominated to replace Adriana Kugler, who resigned from the Board effective August 8, 2025. This appointment allows Trump to fill Kugler’s seat for the remainder of her term — a standard move on paper, but a notable one for a president intent on reshaping the Fed’s leadership.
Miran is no anonymous bureaucrat. He’s been publicly supportive of Bitcoin’s role in a modern monetary system, speaking about it not as a speculative plaything but as a legitimate reserve asset in a world of fiscal and monetary instability. Appointing him to the Fed is not symbolic — it’s a signal. It plants someone with a fundamentally different view of money inside the most powerful monetary policy body in the world. It means Bitcoin now has an informed advocate in the room when those policy debates happen. Yesterday was a good day indeed. If you’re interested in hearing some BTC-related remarks Miran made last year, you can click below to jump to the 37:00 mark of this video — and honestly, the whole interview is worth watching.
Yes, this guy was just picked to be on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
As of today, markets are pricing in a 89.4% probability of a 25 bps cut at the September FOMC meeting.
The political reshaping of the Federal Reserve is intensifying, sending tremors through markets. On August 1, 2025, President Trump fired Erika McEntarfer, the Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner, after a jarring July jobs report revealed only 73,000 jobs added and slashed prior estimates for May and June 2024 by a massive 258,000 — the largest two-month revision since the COVID crisis. May’s job growth was cut from 144,000 to 19,000, and June’s from 147,000 to 14,000, painting a far weaker labor market than previously thought. Trump, baselessly claiming the numbers were “rigged” to undermine his administration, sent a clear signal: economic data must align with his narrative. The stakes for institutions like the Fed just went up.
Six days later, Trump nominated Stephen Miran. Whispers are growing that Trump is positioning a loyalist to act as a “shadow chair.” Miran — a former Treasury official and current chair of the Council of Economic Advisers — could use his FOMC vote and public platform to amplify Trump’s push for aggressive rate cuts, adding pressure on Chair Jerome Powell, whose term extends to May 2026. The Fed’s independence, already tested by Trump’s first-term attacks and shaped by a 2025 Supreme Court ruling affirming its quasi-private status, now faces a fresh challenge as Trump looks to align monetary policy with his growth-first agenda.
Picture this: if Miran is confirmed before the September 17–18 FOMC meeting — where markets currently see an 89.4% chance of a 25 bps cut — his presence could shift the balance. Dissenters like Chris Waller, who pushed for a cut in July, might rally for a bolder 50 bps move. The Fed pulled a similar surprise in September 2024, delivering a half-point cut after skipping one in July. A repeat of that playbook now, against the backdrop of Trump’s tariff threats and a more politicized Fed, could send shockwaves through bonds, stocks, and the dollar — and mark the start of a new era where monetary policy bends closer to political priorities and market demands.
For Bitcoin, that’s not a problem. It’s a tailwind. An independent asset with no board, no election cycle, and no one to fire becomes more appealing every time the Fed’s credibility erodes. And this week delivered developments that undermine that credibility in historic fashion.
So, put it all together: the biggest retirement savings pool on the planet is now open to Bitcoin. Those flows will be constant, automated, and price-insensitive. A Bitcoin supporter is joining the Fed. Rates could be cut three times in four months. And the central bank is being pulled into the political arena in a way that only strengthens the case for monetary assets outside its control.
If you’ve been waiting for the moment when the system stops resisting Bitcoin and starts working for it, this is it. Consistent inflows. Policy tailwinds. Political tailwinds. Macro tailwinds. The question is no longer if Bitcoin wins — it’s already winning.
Have a nice weekend.