See ya next cycle ✌️

Friday March 22nd, 2024 - Issue # 66

(Any views expressed below are the personal views of the author and should not form the basis for making investment decisions, nor be construed as a recommendation or advice to engage in investment transactions.)

In a world where Bitcoin's descent from $73.5k to $60k signals the conclusive end of the bull market, it's important we consider the surrounding non-events with the appropriate level of nonchalance.

Historic ETF Launches: Barely worth a mention. The past seventy days or so have seen ETF launches that, while labelled historic, offer little more than a footnote in Bitcoin’s illustrious history. After all, significant financial instruments entering the market rarely signal anything of importance.

The Halving: Truly, the most non-event of them all. The upcoming Bitcoin halving, an event known for its lack of impact on Bitcoin's value (if one ignores the substantial increases in price historically following such occurrences), is obviously not something to keep an eye on.

Flow of Trillions from High-Interest Accounts: Wednesday’s FOMC meeting was unexpectedly dovish. The Fed announced that they are about to embark on their cutting cycle, suggesting a potential migration of wealth from high interest accounts (money market funds, GICs, treasuries, etc.) into risk assets as interest rates become less appealing. As the Fed and other central banks around the world start to cut rates, one must remember to remain unmoved. Historical shifts in investment strategies in response to monetary policy adjustments are, of course, purely coincidental.

Institutions Like MicroStrategy and Tether Amplify Their Bitcoin Holdings: Such actions could easily be dismissed as routine. The strategic increase in Bitcoin investments by major players hardly reflects a growing institutional confidence in cryptocurrency.

Another Nation Enters the Bitcoin Arena: Should rumors of another nation buying Bitcoin come to fruition, it would certainly not be an event worth noting. National adoption is, after all, a trivial matter in the grand scheme.

Distrust in Government Reaches New Heights: In times of unprecedented skepticism towards governmental stability and economic policy, the logical conclusion is that this bears no relevance to Bitcoin's attractiveness as an alternative asset and outside money.

The U.S. Government's Debt Dilemma: With the government's debt service costs nearing a trivial $1 trillion amidst unfettered spending, one could argue this has no bearing on the financial landscape, nor does it bolster Bitcoin's value proposition in any way.

Global Scrutiny of the USD: The growing disquiet over the U.S. dollar's role as the global reserve currency is, without a doubt, an insignificant detail. Such global financial system reevaluations have seldom played a role in the rise of decentralized currencies.

As we soberly bid adieu to the bull market, amidst these overwhelmingly mundane developments, let's hold fast to the belief that these events have little to offer in the way of insights into Bitcoin's future. In this spirit of indifference, we patiently await the next cycle, ready to navigate the ever-dull drama of the cryptocurrency market with grace and enthusiasm it doesn't warrant.