(Any views expressed below are the personal views of the author and should not form the basis for making investment decisions, nor be construed as a recommendation or advice to engage in investment transactions.)
It’s impossible to start this week’s note without acknowledging the shocking assassination of Charlie Kirk and the brazen murder of Iryna Zarutska. I’m not sure if I wish I could take watching those videos back, or if it was important to see how far the West has fallen. Suffice it to say, this week was very depressing, horrifying, and revealing. Personally, aside from the graphic videos, the response from a loud minority who were sympathetic to the killers and even cheered them on made my blood boil. I think that this is the first time in my life I’ve seen and felt evil up close.
I thought about whether or not I should put something out this week, it’s just after 4 this morning and I’m still not sure how to transition into a weekly update but I’ll do my best and start with this — the West is going through a dramatic transition and what we’re witnessing has happened many times throughout history. I believe that the wealth gap has become far too wide and there is a significant group on either side that feel disenfranchised and hopeless which is leading to a tech-enabled kind of revolution that I’m afraid will only get worse.
Whether you agreed with Charlie Kirk or not, it’s yet another stark reminder of the political violence America has witnessed over the past year. Starting with President Trump’s assassination attempt in Butler, Pennsylvania last July, and another at his golf club in September, this year things have escalated.
On April 13, 2025, part of the Pennsylvania Governor’s Residence was set on fire in what has been treated as an assassination attempt. The suspect was arrested and charged with attempted murder, arson, etc..
On June 14, 2025, a shooter attacked the homes of Minnesota state Representative Melissa Hortman and her husband; also state Senator John Hoffman and his wife. Hortman and her husband were killed. Hoffman and his wife were wounded. It is being prosecuted as a politically motivated attack.
And then of course this week Charlie Kirk was killed.
Strauss and Howe’s The Fourth Turning lays out that history moves in cycles — roughly every 80–100 years, societies enter a period of upheaval where institutions decay, the social order fractures, and conflict becomes unavoidable. It’s not the first time, and it won’t be the last. These “turnings” are messy, painful, and often violent — but they eventually give way to renewal.
What we’re living through right now feels exactly like that. The signs are everywhere: political assassinations, collapsing trust in government, spiraling debt, cultural extremism, the wealth divide stretching beyond what the center can hold. The internet has poured gasoline on all of it, amplifying division in ways no past turning ever had to contend with.
The hardest part of living in a Fourth Turning is that when you’re inside of it, it feels like the end of the world. But if history is any guide, it’s not the end. It’s the storm before the calm. Out of chaos comes re-ordering. Out of destruction comes rebuilding. Out of violence comes new institutions that fit the next age.
I don’t know what the other side of this turning will look like. I just know that we’re in it — and the people who can keep their heads, their values, and their capital intact will be the ones who get to shape what comes after.
For me, that means two things. First, refusing to look away. As painful as it is, we need to witness these moments with clear eyes. Second, anchoring myself in things I believe will outlast the storm — relationships, principles, and yes, assets that can’t be printed or faked.
We’re likely going to see more chaos. More violence. More “this can’t be real” moments. But remember, history doesn’t end here. It just turns.
Well, this is not how I thought this week’s newsletter would shape up when I started a couple of hours ago…at all…but on the markets side, I’m feeling very bullish. The Fed is about to cut rates next week into a raging hot stock market. Will they go 25 bps or 50 bps is now being discussed as important economic data rolled in this week. We opened the week with massive downward revisions to jobs. The “resilient labor market” story we’ve been fed turned out to be smoke and mirrors. Inflation concerns were dampened — PPI came in better than expected, and CPI was in line with expectations which has the market debating whether the Fed goes 25 or 50 next week but the Street is now expecting 3 rate cuts this year.
I’ll let former Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein who was on CNBC yesterday do the talking:
Even in a week this heavy, I can’t help but feel hopeful. The world feels messy, but we’re standing at the edge of breakthroughs that will change everything: AI unlocking new waves of productivity and driving the scientific discoveries that could extend human life, and Bitcoin offering the world a form of money that can’t be corrupted or inflated away.
It’s easy to get lost in the chaos of today, but when I zoom out, I see the seeds of a future that’s brighter, freer, and more abundant than anything humanity has ever known. That’s what keeps me grounded — and excited — no matter how dark the headlines get.
…And hopefully back to my normal style of notes next week.