The Trump Put

Friday December 13th, 2024 - Issue # 91

Dec 13, 2024

(Any views expressed below are the personal views of the author and should not form the basis for making investment decisions, nor be construed as a recommendation or advice to engage in investment transactions.)

Apologies for missing last week, I was in the Bahamas celebrating $100,000 BTC (and getting engaged). A heartfelt congratulations to everyone who believed, stayed the course, and ignored the noise…(real) 6-figure Bitty is something to celebrate.

Quick detour — my dad sent this headline to our family group chat yesterday:

It was followed by disappointed remarks from other, younger family members who are noticing first hand how horrible the Canadian economy has gotten (first time home buyers, babies, etc..).

I replied: It should’ve read “want to raise a kid in Canada? Well, you should’ve bought Bitcoin.”

I couldn’t help it.

Anyway.

Tis the season as they say! I’m here to tell you that not only does Santa love BTC, but in good times the coin loves to enter the New Year in style. It should be a very happy holidays indeed.

Bitcoin's average performance in December of halving years is historically very strong. In fact, Bitcoin has never been down in December of a halving year.

2012 Halving Year: +16% December gain
2016 Halving Year: December gained approximately +30%.
2020 Halving Year: December surged by +47%.
2024 Halving Year: December melted minds by +69% (kidding)

While not guaranteed, the trend is certainly our friend in this case. Since we sliced through $100k late last week, we saw a sharp move down to sub $95k early this week which wiped out a ton of leverage and sent alts spiraling. It’s exactly what we needed to resume upward momentum and in no time we’ve found ourselves back above the 6-figure mark. Bullish.

And the ETFs are just chowing down on BTC and ETH, no matter what the prices are doing.

These numbers are simply bonkers. BlackRock’s IBIT scooped up $431M in BTC just yesterday and nearly $1.4BN over the last 5 days.

The ETH ETFs have also been crushing it — they saw $274M in net inflows yesterday and $915M over the last 5 days.

I know, I know, charts, charts, charts…but hear me out (after one last chart).

The red arrow marks the first gold ETF’s approval back in 2004—and wow, this year feels like a decade. Bitcoin ETFs have already pulled in a mind-melting $35BN in 2024, making it the most successful ETF launch ever. For context, gold ETFs saw $2.6 billion in their first year—basically a pretty good week for Bitcoin ETFs. Even Ethereum ETFs are going to beat it.

An interesting point to note is that year one is usually the slowest for ETFs—gold ETFs, for example, reached $28.9 billion by year six. If Bitcoin follows a similar trajectory, we’re all going to the Bahamas. Plus, major wirehouses like Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch haven’t even fully jumped in yet. When they do in 2025, the institutional inflows could be staggering.

Investors also like to ladder up—starting small but increasing allocations as confidence builds. What started as cautious entry this year could easily double or triple by 2025. Bitcoin ETFs aren’t just following gold’s playbook—they’re rewriting it.

I still think we’re in Q4 2020 times, and this is just the beginning.

Click here for full BlackRock report

BlackRock who has a reported $11.5 Trillion in assets under management, put out an official recommendation of 2% into Bitcoin. Please stop hitting me with that bullish stick! It’s too much man. If their clients listen, this accounts for an injection of $230B’s. That is 6.4x more than is currently in IBIT. They might not even have a choice — I’ve said it many times in the past but my TradFi friend who works in the fund business sent me a message yesterday saying that he feels like BlackRock is going to add IBIT to their funds soon 💯

Going through my notes and there’s just way too much to highlight this week. I titled this week’s newsletter “The Trump Put” off the back of a great interview I saw yesterday. I think I can just let Tom Lee do the taking. Click the X post below — for some reason CNBC didn’t include his Bitcoin prediction in the clip just after this which I think is also a good market overview.

Also watch Trump who rang in the bell at the NYSE yesterday being asked by Jim Cramer if he’s planning to do a strategic petroleum reserve for crypto…”yeah I think so..,”