Two Worlds, One Market

Friday February 21st, 2025 - Issue # 96

(Any views expressed below are the personal views of the author and should not form the basis for making investment decisions, nor be construed as a recommendation or advice to engage in investment transactions.)

Apologies, I was off the radar for a couple of weeks, but for good reason. Satstreet hosted a fundraiser for Pierre Poilievre, and it was a massive success. We raised over $140,000, bringing together leaders from mining, energy, blockchain, tech, and finance. The enthusiasm in the room was clear—people are ready for change in Canada, and the energy around the event reinforced that the tides are turning.

I mean, it’s hard for me to feel bearish Canada right now after that event and a massive win for Canada last night — what a game.

And don’t let the liberal controlled media fool you, we’re going to win.

Here’s another metric I track — X follower count and engagement:

Even Freeland has 3x Carney’s followers…

But stepping back into the markets, there’s a massive disconnect between retail and professional sentiment right now. It’s like we’re living in two completely separate worlds. Retail is the most bearish I’ve seen in years—Crypto Twitter is acting like FTX just collapsed, screaming about rug pulls, overhyped alts, and impending doom. Meanwhile, professional sentiment is euphoric. TradFi investors and institutions see nothing but green lights. Bitcoin at all-time highs, gold at all-time highs, stocks at all-time highs, interest rates coming down, Trump openly talking about crypto, the SEC and CFTC shifting to a pro-crypto stance—it’s almost surreal how different the narratives are depending on where you’re looking.

And we’re seeing it firsthand at the desk. Family offices, and corporations are onboarding right now, making their first serious Bitcoin allocations. They’re not scared—they’re positioning.

Then, just this morning, the biggest news of all: Coinbase just won its battle against the SEC.

This is massive. For years, the SEC—under Gensler—used regulation as a weapon to crush the crypto industry in the U.S. The case against Coinbase was their crown jewel, their attempt to set a legal precedent that would put every crypto company in the country on the ropes. Instead? Coinbase walked away with a full dismissal. No fines, no restrictions, no changes to their business. After all the taxpayer dollars wasted, after all the grandstanding, the SEC got nothing.

This isn’t just a win for Coinbase—it’s a turning point. The SEC’s aggressive stance on crypto is dead. With Gensler gone and pro-crypto regulators like Hester Peirce and Mark Uyeda now shaping policy, the U.S. is becoming crypto-friendly again at warp speed. If you had told me a year ago that we’d have banks approved to custody Bitcoin, states pushing for Bitcoin reserves, and Coinbase walking away unscathed from an SEC lawsuit all in the last couple of months, I would’ve said Bitcoin is much higher than $100K. But here we are.

And this Coinbase win is bigger than people realize. It’s not just about regulatory overreach—it’s about access. I’ve mentioned this previously but the repeal of SAB 121 is a game changer. This SEC rule was one of the biggest barriers preventing banks from holding Bitcoin, forcing institutions to rely on ETFs or offshore custodians instead of direct ownership. Now that it’s gone, the floodgates are open.

Banks being able to custody Bitcoin means one thing: Bitcoin as pristine collateral is now officially on the table. Think about what real estate prices would look like if there were no mortgages and you had to buy houses in cash. That’s Bitcoin today. But once banks can custody it and offer loans against it, the financialization of Bitcoin changes everything.

This isn’t just about Wall Street getting comfortable with Bitcoin—it’s about accelerating the transition from Bitcoin as a speculative asset to Bitcoin as a fundamental pillar of the financial system. Institutions that once tiptoed around regulatory uncertainty now have a clear path to direct exposure. And when Bitcoin becomes a recognized form of high-quality collateral, the entire financial system will be forced to reprice it.

Meanwhile, the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve conversation is heating up. Texas just introduced a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Bill, and Utah’s version just passed the Senate Revenue and Taxation Committee. More states are waking up to the idea that holding Bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset makes sense.

And let’s not forget the macro backdrop. China is in a deep recession and foaming at the mouth to stimulate. The Federal Reserve just signaled that quantitative tightening (QT) is coming to an end this spring—meaning the era of liquidity contraction is over. And Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth fund has *started* accumulating Bitcoin adding fuel to the fire for Nation State Bitcoin adoption.

The regulatory war is ending. The liquidity war is beginning. And the race for Bitcoin is now a game of who sees it first.

Have a great weekend.