₿-₿-₿-₿ullish
Friday September 27th, 2024 - Issue # 83
(Any views expressed below are the personal views of the author and should not form the basis for making investment decisions, nor be construed as a recommendation or advice to engage in investment transactions.)
It’s 4am, can’t sleep, thinking about this chart:
What you’re looking at above is pretty much what I’ve been waiting for since late 2020. In early-mid 2020, I was influenced to gain exposure to precious metals, mainly gold stocks (etfs, miners). It was one hell of a run. In the Fall of 2020, my spidey senses started tingling and I managed to move my PM exposure to crypto, mainly bitcoin-related stocks (ETFs, miners). Both of those trades worked out extraordinarily well for me and while it was mostly just following what more experienced investors were doing, mixed with the inner feeling I had having been in the space for a while, little did I know I played it perfectly. Mind you, I round tripped everything in the end so we’ll try not to do that again this time.
The white line is gold, and the red line is bitcoin. As you can see, gold went on a magnificent run as investors rushed to the preeminent safe haven asset in anticipation that the Fed and other global central banks and governments would inject stimulus into the economy in order to counter the global Covid shutdown. They were right. Trillions upon trillions of dollars flooded the market, sending gold and nearly everything else to the stratosphere. However, it was when it became consensus that rates would be kept low and helicopter money was going to continue that gold petered out and crypto, stocks, and real estate took over as we ratcheted up to the bubble of 2021.
Why am I telling you this at 4:42am on a Friday morning?
Gold has been absolutely ripping since July ⬆️ while bitcoin has been *frustratingly* sideways since March ⬇️
Just like in 2020 when gold foreshadowed global easing (to put it mildly), it seems to have done the same thing this time around before a crisis-level rate cut by the Fed, and bazooka-style stimulus in China.
While in my PA, I faded gold this cycle (how could I have owned it after bashing it so hard earlier this year), and suffered through the sideways bitcoin price action over the past 6 months, this is the most bullish I’ve been in months. We’ve got the two biggest economies in the world—China and the U.S.—both kicking off the easing cycle. The charts are finally looking healthy again, and sentiment is still stuck in disbelief. People are hesitant to accept that we’re entering a real uptrend here. As family office CIO put it to me this week, if you’re playing against Steph Curry, you plan on him shooting 3’s.
Lol…Billionaire hedge fund manager David Tepper gets it.
CNBC host: But how do you hedge your risk?
Tepper: I’m sitting here in a suit. My counter bet is that I don’t care.
There was a ton of good news this week and I’ve been too busy to formulate an opinion on everything but here are a few things that stood out to me:
The approval of options for BlackRock’s IBIT will accelerate institutional Bitcoin adoption.
BNY Mellon, one of the oldest banks in the U.S., is preparing to become a custodian for Bitcoin ETFs. While current SEC regulations (SAB 121) have barred banks from serving as custodians for crypto ETFs, it seems BNY is being granted a unique exception…interesting.
Yesterday's Bitcoin ETF flows were positive for an impressive $365.7 million.
My newsletter from a couple weeks back about September being a historically bismol month for bitcoin seems to be irrelevant because if nothing changes over the next few days, this was the most bullish September ever for Bitcoin.
Parting thought…
It seems like everyone right now (myself included for the most part) is hiding out in majors (we’re seeing mostly BTC, ETH, and SOL). The common theme I’m noticing is that investors are feeling safe in Bitcoin and holding off on investing in alts until the election — Trump wins, game on, Kamala wins, it’s game over man. Consensus is often wrong and I think it’s wise to consider that the market might not give you that optionality…it could be the right time to add risk.
Have a great weekend!